Dear everybody, Dear Margus,
Thank you for hosting us here in this wonderful castle.
First, on the Middle East. There is no swift exit from the stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz in sight. And the consequences are negative across the board. The global economy is reeling. Russia is gaining fresh revenue from higher oil prices, and US weapons deliveries to Nordic and Baltic countries face delays.
For Europe, freedom of navigation is non-negotiable. EU Foreign Ministers have already agreed to expand sanctions on Iran over shipping restrictions. Our naval operations can play a greater role in restoring energy and trade flows.
Tehran’s nuclear and missile programmes, as well as its support to terrorist groups in the region and beyond must be addressed. These issues cannot be put on backburner.
Second, turning to the region. The NB8 are the strongest supporters of Ukraine. With their backing, Ukraine has pushed back Russia into a stalemate and, in doing so, also revolutionised modern warfare. The grim battlefield math shows Russia is losing a record number of soldiers.
With the EU’s 90-billion-loan and the 20th sanctions package we sent a clear message: we will provide Ukraine what it needs to hold its ground, until Putin understands his war leads nowhere. Ukraine is more important to us than it is to Russia.
Russia’s war aims keep falling flat and this is increasingly visible. For the first time in years, Moscow’s Victory parade is about to take place without any heavy military equipment. This tells a lot about how the war is going for Russia.
We also discussed the long-term threats posed by Russia. Hybrid attacks are already off the scale. Too often, Moscow sees hybrid warfare as cost-free. But we need to do more to change that calculation: more sanctions, accountability for war crimes, international isolation, and shutting the door to Russian ex-combatants are core elements of our response.
Beyond sabotage, disinformation and cyber, Russia is gearing up its military for a long-term confrontation with the West. Whether Putin dares to test NATO at some point, depends entirely on us. Deterrence works if it is credible, showing weakness only invites aggression.
If we want to keep our countries safe, we must continue to strengthen European defence readiness. This means surging defence spending, closing capability gaps, and scaling up European defence production. NB8 countries have already taken this message to heart. A more European NATO is long overdue.
Finally, let me say what I think we all here agree on: there can be no return to ‘business as usual’ with Russia, even after Moscow ends this war in Ukraine. Next month, in Cyprus, EU Foreign Affairs Ministers will continue the conversation about our approach to Russia, and how best to defend our security interests.
Thank you again for hosting us here.
Q&A
Q. The Estonian President, Alar Karis, told that Europe made a big mistake in the Spring of 2022 and let the best possible peace negotiations slip through its fingers. What do the Estonian Foreign Ministry and Kaja Kallas’ teams think of this kind of statement?
I think, after this war is over, we have plenty of room to look into who did what and when. But Spring 2022, the war had just started. And like Margus said, in December or November 2021, Russia had presented the demands towards Europe – and that also concerned all of our countries – that NATO would go back to their borders of 1997, I think, and all this. So, saying such thing is clearly walking into those Russian traps. And this is really saying that the Russians always demand the maximum, ask something that has never been theirs, then present threats and ultimatums. And in the end, there will always be people in the West who will offer them something. So, let’s not walk into that trap.
Q. If Europe does not engage in dialogue with Russia, is there not a risk that others will do so? For example, the United States – and on terms that are unfavourable to Europe and, among others, the Nordic Baltic countries.
What we have seen so far is that Russia does not want to engage in any kind of dialogue. We should not humiliate ourselves by being the ‘demandeurs’: “please, we beg you to talk to us”. But we should put them in a position where they actually go from pretending to negotiate to actually negotiate, and that is why we have planned to discuss with the foreign ministers of the European Union in Cyprus on what is the picture that we see, what are the requests that we have for Russia after this war is over, so that we can see that Russia does not pose a threat to any of these countries or Europe as a whole, because that has been the problem. And that is why before talking to them, we should really agree on what we want to talk with them about.
Q. I was wondering what you made of the phone call between Trump and Putin the other day, and the outcome of that, and whether the Ukraine peace talks are kind of at a dead end right now, or was there a certain policy shift on Trump’s behalf there?
The Ukraine peace talks are really stalling. Actually, there is nothing happening there. Of course, when we see these calls between President Trump and President Putin , always there are a lot of questions unanswered, considering that Russia is openly praising the heroic battle that Iran is having against America. Does it mean that there is actually also more pressure to Russia because they are helping Iran to fight a war against them? So, we would like to see also that pressure and we did not see that in that call.
Link to the video: https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/media/video/I-288425